The monthly Water Supply Outlook by ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP) has been released.

In the Washington metropolitan area, we anticipate a higher likelihood of water releases from the backup reservoirs during the summer and fall of 2023. Despite receiving some relief from heavy rains, the Potomac basin has experienced unusual dryness over the past few months, resulting in ongoing challenges with low stream flows, groundwater, and soil moisture.

Notably, July 4th marked the hottest day ever recorded on Earth, underscoring the necessity of regular reassessment of the current conditions.

Although the water flow in the Potomac River currently satisfies the region’s demands, comprehensive contingency plans have been established to prevent shortages in the event of low-flow conditions.

Click here to see the most recent Water Supply Outlook.

Find information on the continued historical low flows, US Navy sued, mussels, eels, and more in this week’s Potomac News Reservoir…

Rain returns, but we’re not out of the (dry) woods just yet

If you caught last week’s newsletter, you saw that we started actively monitoring drought conditions on June 12 due to low flows in the Potomac River. Staff in ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP) were able to stop drought monitoring 5 days later after subsequent rain storms across the basin.

The Potomac River is known as a “flashy” river, meaning it can rise and fall suddenly. That has been particularly evident over these past few weeks when we went from drought monitoring to possible minor flooding in only a week or so. If we get the upcoming several inches of rain predicted by the NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center, some areas of the Potomac basin will experience flow levels of minor to moderate flooding.

Even with the rain, we may continue to experience a hydrological moderate drought in the watershed. See the video by NBC4’s meteorologist Ryan Miller for an explanation of the difference between a hydrological and meteorological drought in the Potomac watershed. Both the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and officials in Front Royal, Virginia, have recently made the call for voluntary water conservation.

According to our Director of CO-OP Operations, Dr. Cherie Schultz, “If we get 2 inches of rain in the next few days, it is not going to erase the [rain] deficit but we will be out of extremely dry conditions and it will help. We still face the likelihood of drought operations this summer unless we continue to get more rain events.”

The graph above shows Potomac River’s adjusted flows at Little Falls (black line) headed in the right direction, but still on the low end.

What would happen to our water supply during a drought? The DC Metro area is well protected due to careful planning and coordination among ICPRB and our partners. See a video of Dr. Schultz’s presentation during yesterday’s quarterly business meeting on the status of the current drought, how it relates to historical droughts, and what would happen if flows drop very low.

Current Potomac River Conditions

Several inches of rain is predicted over the next few days and should bring us closer to the median (gray line) for this time of year. However, despite the expected rain, we will most likely remain below average. (Graph: USGS gage at Point of Rocks)

Current flow: 2280 cfs

Median flow: 4970 cfs

90 Day Precipitation:

3.6 inches below average

Click here to see the full Potomac News Reservoir.

ICPRB Begins Daily Drought Monitoring

On Monday the low river flow activated daily drought monitoring by ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply on the Potomac (CO-OP). This happens when the gage at Point of Rocks, MD, dips below 2,000 cubic feet per second (cfs). During active drought monitoring, CO-OP staff provide a daily update to partners about the flow, weather, and water withdrawals within the basin.

The graph shows Potomac River’s adjusted flows at Little Falls (black line) dropping into the lowest we’ve seen in recorded history.

In the case of really low flows in the Potomac, CO-OP staff will work with partners to coordinate releases from upstream reservoirs (Little Seneca and Jennings Randolph) to supplement the flow and provide sufficient water to downstream water suppliers.

Learn more about ICPRB CO-OP’S Drought Monitoring and Operations > > >

Check out our recent Facebook post to see the graph with data about how common it is for the river flow to reach the drought monitoring threshold.

At this point, we do not predict a call for voluntary water restrictions for folks in the Potomac watershed. However, it is always a good idea to conserve water, especially during the dryer summer months. Small changes in daily habits can lead to big changes in water use.

Simple actions you can do to conserve water:

🚽 Fix leaky pipes.
🚿 Take shorter showers.
🌱 Choose native plants for your landscaping.
🥕 Capture and reuse water from activities like washing vegetables or waiting for the water to warm up. This water can be used to water plants or to clean.
🚰 Brushing teeth? Washing hands? Doing dishes? Turn the faucet off when you are not actively using the water during these daily activities.

Current Potomac River Conditions

The river flow is slightly above the level that triggers drought monitoring. However, CO-OP staff will continue daily monitoring as the level is relatively low for this time of year. Monitoring will continue until a significant increase in flow occurs.

Only 0.25 inches of rain is forecasted for the basin over the next few days according to the NWS Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC). It is expected the precipitation deficit will continue to increase over coming weeks. (Graph: USGS gage at Point of Rocks.)
Current flow: 2090 cfs

Median flow: 5540 cfs

90 Day Precipitation: 4.7 inches below average

Upcoming ICPRB Business Meeting

The ICPRB will virtually hold its third quarter business meeting on June 21, 2023. Commissioners will be updated on ICPRB’s Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Justice Statement, the successful Comprehensive Plan 5-year review process, and discuss the process for revising the Strategic Plan. The public is invited to view the virtual meeting. You can reply to this email for more information on how to attend.

ICPRB in the Community

Join us this Saturday for a meet and greet with creek critters at the Frederick Master Gardener’s Earth Awareness Day in Frederick, MD.

We are hiring!

We are hiring for an Outreach Program Manager position. The application period closes on June 30. Learn more on our Jobs page > > >

Looking for something to do this weekend? Check out our Events Calendar for fun activities!