The ICPRB, through its Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP), coordinates water supply operations during times of drought and recommends releases of stored water.  These operations ensure adequate water supplies for Washington metropolitan area water users and for environmental flow levels. The Water Supply Outlooks are published by CO-OP on a monthly basis between April and October. They are meant to provide an update on the possibility of low-flow conditions in the Potomac basin.

The September Water Supply Outlook states there is a much above-normal probability of releases from the Washington metropolitan area’s backup water supply reservoirs for the 2023 summer and fall seasons. These releases are typically prompted by low flows resulting from a combination of insufficient summer precipitation and low groundwater levels. August’s average Potomac Basin precipitation was 0.8 inches below normal as of the 29th, with a long-term (12-month) cumulative deficit of about 7.1 inches (11 to 25 percent below normal). Consequently, Little Falls’ adjusted stream flow remains below average yet above the historical minimum, and groundwater monitoring indicates below-normal levels. Presently, the Potomac River observed flow at Little Falls Dam, Washington D.C., is at 472 MGD (730 cfs), demanding close monitoring under CO-OP’s declared enhanced drought operations since August 25. The Washington Aqueduct voluntarily shifted water withdrawals from Great Falls to Little Falls to ensure river environmental flows. Notably, a substantial portion of the Potomac watershed is facing D1 drought conditions per the U.S. Drought Monitor, triggering a discussion among the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) Drought Coordination Technical Committee (DCTC) to potentially initiate a “Drought Watch” stage. Despite basin conditions, the Potomac River’s flows are currently adequate to meet the water demands of the Washington metropolitan area without requiring releases from upstream reservoirs. Thanks to well-designed drought-contingency plans, the area is well-prepared to handle further reductions in flow.

Read the full September report here >>>

Drought in the basin, Luke Paper Mill up for sale, the unequal costs of flooding, and more, in this week’s Potomac News Reservoir.

Potomac River Conditions

As you will see in the news articles linked below, communities across the basin are implementing drought watch status and asking residents to conserve water. Due to hydroelectric dam operations upstream, fairly large hourly fluctuations in flows can be observed at some USGS streamflow gages, but the effects of these are temporary, and on average, river flows are continuing to slowly decline.

However, good news might be on the horizon. NWS MARFC predicts ¼ to ¾ inches of rain throughout the Potomac watershed.

“This may be enough to keep us in daily drought monitoring but out of drought operations,” according to Dr. Cherie Schultz, Director of ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP).

CO-OP staff have been in active drought monitoring status since last Friday. Should the dry weather continue, there is a possibility they will go into full drought operations, with twice-daily reporting to stakeholders and consideration of releases from upstream reservoirs.

Collaboration on River Spills

At this month’s meeting of the Potomac River Basin Drinking Water Source Protection Partnership members heard from sister river commissions and partner organizations about how they responded to two recent river spills: the East Palestine train derailment and the Delaware River latex spill. Although neither of these events occurred in the Potomac watershed, hearing how the Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO) and the US EPA Region 3 responded, and the lessons they learned, is an important step towards better preparation for a regional spill response.

A video of the presentations is available on the ICPRB YouTube page.

The Partnership is a voluntary association of water suppliers and government agencies focused on protecting sources of drinking water in the Potomac River basin. Coordinated by ICPRB, this coalition takes a collaborative approach to protecting raw water supplies in the basin, including spill response.

Find more information on who to contact if you see a spill, fish kill, or harmful algal bloom in the river can be found on ICPRB’s How to Report a Spill or Environmental Problem page.

Upcoming ICPRB Business Meeting

The ICPRB will hold its fourth quarter business meeting on September 12, 2023, at the National Conservation Training Center in Shepherdstown, WV. This will be the first in-person business meeting since 2020. The agenda includes a presentation about improvements to our seasonal forecasting projects like the Water Supply Outlook, an overview of the Comprehensive Plan 5-year review process, and updates on other projects.

The public is invited to attend the meeting, however, there will not be a virtual meeting option. Please contact us for more information on how to attend.

We are excited to announce three upcoming events where the public can join experts in their field on a walk and talk. We’ll cover issues related to watershed management, environmental challenges, winter salt use, park management, and more. The Saturday morning hikes are FREE, but please register at the links below so that we contact you in case of weather delays or other issues. Whether you’re a nature enthusiast, a conservationist, or simply curious about the natural world around you, this event is perfect for you!

• Walk in the Woods: Frederick Municipal Forest (Frederick, MD on October 14)
• Walk in the Woods: Sam Michael’s Park (Harpers Ferry, WV on October 21)
• Walk in the Woods: Let’s be Smart About Winter Salt (Gaithersburg, MD on October 28)

Studying harmful algal blooms, lots of conservation efforts and projects, dumping incident in Arlington, and more, in this week’s Potomac News Reservoir.

The Wrong Kind of Summer Blooms

Algal blooms can be unsightly and impede recreation on rivers and lakes. After all, who wants to paddle through mats of algae? But they can also be dangerous. Some algal blooms can produce toxins, known as cyanobacteria, that can sicken people and pets. These are known as Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs).

Algal blooms can be a common sight during the hot, dry months of late summer. Unfortunately, there is evidence that they will become more common due to climate change. Even with all the science behind them, their bloom patterns in the Potomac basin are not fully understood. ICPRB and our partners are working to fix that.

ICPRB aquatic biologists have been busy the past few weeks exploring the blooms of the North Branch and South Branch Potomac. They are working to figure out where the blooms are, why they are showing up where they are, and which species are present. Scientists at George Mason University’s Potomac Environmental Research and Education Center (PEREC) then identify the species to learn more about them.

The collaboration doesn’t end there. In addition to monitoring the blooms, we are conducting drone flyovers with Virginia Commonwealth University to help identify cyanobacteria (also known as blue green algae) hot spots and working with the Virginia Department of Health to develop a rapid field test for the presence of HABs.

“Over the course of these projects, we’ll make large strides in understanding why these blooms are occurring,” explains Mike Selckmann, ICPRB’s aquatic biologist.

In addition to working in the western part of the Potomac watershed, ICPRB staff are supporting the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) to develop a watershed management plan to address HABs in Lake Anna, Virginia.

ICPRB staff recently met with the Lake Anna Civic Association to discuss the project. The lake is not in the Potomac watershed, however, ICPRB is providing support due to our previous experience and expertise. Learn more about the projects mentioned above on Virginia DEQ’s Harmful Algal Bloom website.

Worried about blooms in your favorite swimming spot? According to the U.S. EPA, the signs of a possible toxic bloom include:

👃 A bad smell

🌊 Discoloration

🟩 Foam, scum, algal mats, or paint-like streaks on the surface

🐟 Dead fish or other animals washed up on its shore or beach

Some states provide algal bloom warnings, but if you are unsure of the water’s safety, it is best just to stay out of the water altogether (that includes your furry friends, too!).

Potomac River Conditions

If you only learn one thing from this newsletter, we hope it is that river flows are low and very little rain is in the forecast. Okay, that’s two things…but two important things. Much of the Potomac watershed is in moderate or severe drought.

It’s a good time to start thinking about wise water use (find more ideas at 100+ Water-Savings Tips):

🚽 Fix leaks

🧼 Only run the dishwasher/laundry with full loads

🏡 Take stock of water used for landscaping

As predicted in last week’s newsletter, ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply on the Potomac (CO-OP) has started daily drought monitoring due to the river’s flow at Point of Rocks dipping (and continuing to fall) below 2,000 cubic feet per second. Each morning CO-OP staff coordinate with water suppliers to provide an email to water utilities and government agencies with river flow, weather, and water demand. Having informed stakeholders helps everyone make good decisions about our water supply. In the case of a serious drought, the DC metro area is well protected thanks to decades of planning and preparation.

Current flow: 1700 cfs

Median flow: 2770 cfs

90 day precipitation: – 3.2 inches below average