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ICPRB Publishes the September Water Supply Outlook

August 31, 2023

The ICPRB, through its Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP), coordinates water supply operations during times of drought and recommends releases of stored water. These operations ensure adequate water supplies for Washington metropolitan area water users and for environmental flow levels. The Water Supply Outlooks are published by CO-OP on a monthly basis between April and October. They are meant to provide an update on the possibility of low-flow conditions in the Potomac basin.

The September Water Supply Outlook states there is a much above-normal probability of releases from the Washington metropolitan area’s backup water supply reservoirs for the 2023 summer and fall seasons. These releases are typically prompted by low flows resulting from a combination of insufficient summer precipitation and low groundwater levels. August’s average Potomac Basin precipitation was 0.8 inches below normal as of the 29th, with a long-term (12-month) cumulative deficit of about 7.1 inches (11 to 25 percent below normal). Consequently, Little Falls’ adjusted stream flow remains below average yet above the historical minimum, and groundwater monitoring indicates below-normal levels. Presently, the Potomac River observed flow at Little Falls Dam, Washington D.C., is at 472 MGD (730 cfs), demanding close monitoring under CO-OP’s declared enhanced drought operations since August 25. The Washington Aqueduct voluntarily shifted water withdrawals from Great Falls to Little Falls to ensure river environmental flows. Notably, a substantial portion of the Potomac watershed is facing D1 drought conditions per the U.S. Drought Monitor, triggering a discussion among the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) Drought Coordination Technical Committee (DCTC) to potentially initiate a “Drought Watch” stage. Despite basin conditions, the Potomac River’s flows are currently adequate to meet the water demands of the Washington metropolitan area without requiring releases from upstream reservoirs. Thanks to well-designed drought-contingency plans, the area is well-prepared to handle further reductions in flow.

Read the full September report here >>>

PRESS RELEASE: ICPRB Initiates Drought Operations

August 25, 2023

PRESS RELEASE: ICPRB Initiates Drought Operations

The Potomac River flow is dropping and with little rain in the forecast, the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) is ramping up Drought Operations.

A PDF of this press release is available here.

The staff of ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply on the Potomac (CO-OP) announced the flow of the Potomac River has reached a low significant enough to initiate Drought Operations.

According to Dr. Schultz, Director of ICPRB’s CO-OP, “Today we are initiating CO-OP Drought Operations, per the Water Supply Coordination Agreement (WSCA) of 1982. According to the WSCA, Drought Operations is triggered when flow in the Potomac River at Little Falls, plus Washington metropolitan area Potomac withdrawals, ‘is projected to be less than twice the projected withdrawals for any of the next five days.’”

Follow the conversation on Twitter using #droughtoperations.

Dr. Schultz explains that during Drought Operations, CO-OP staff produce twice-daily reports to stakeholders regarding flow, weather, and demand conditions. The staff uses river flow forecasts to determine whether changes in operations are needed to meet upcoming water demands. These include releases from upstream reservoirs, Jennings Randolph and Little Seneca, to augment Potomac River flow.

Before today’s announcement, Schultz said CO-OP staff activated drought monitoring last Friday, which entails one daily communication to stakeholders that closely monitors the situation but does not provide recommendations.

Drought monitoring is not uncommon for the drier months of fall. Shultz points out that there was indication of an especially dry summer to come when earlier this spring the Potomac River flow at Point of Rocks dropped below the drought monitoring threshold of 2,000 cubic feet per second (cfs). This is an uncommon occurrence so early in the year.

While Drought Operations are unusual, they are not unprecedented.

“In 1999, a record low June flow was observed in the river and we began Drought Operations. As a result, the first water supply release ever was made from the Jennings Randolph Reservoir over a several-week period, relieving stress from the low flow conditions downstream,” explains Michael Nardolilli, Executive Director of ICPRB. Additional reservoir releases were made during the Drought Operations of 2002 and 2010.

According to Nardolilli, “Cooperative operations among the three major water suppliers, with coordination and technical support provided by ICPRB’s CO-OP, ensured that sufficient water was always available in the river to meet water supply needs and to maintain the environmental flow recommendations at Great Falls and Little Falls.”

As in previous droughts, the CO-OP staff will closely monitor the situation. Dr. Schultz states, “The DC Metro area’s water supply is well protected due to decades of careful planning and preparation.”

Nardolilli says it is always a good idea to be mindful of our water use. He provides some examples, including turning off the tap when we are not actively using water like when we are brushing our teeth or doing the dishes, running the dishwasher and laundry only when you have a full load, and try to reduce the amount of water we use on landscaping, which is a significant portion of summer water-use.

The ICPRB is an interstate compact commission established by Congress in 1940. Its mission is to protect and enhance the waters and related resources of the Potomac River basin through science, regional cooperation, and education. Represented by appointed commissioners, the ICPRB includes the District of Columbia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the federal government.

News from Around the Basin – August 24, 2023

August 24, 2023

Drought in the basin, Luke Paper Mill up for sale, the unequal costs of flooding, and more, in this week’s Potomac News Reservoir.

Potomac River Conditions

As you will see in the news articles linked below, communities across the basin are implementing drought watch status and asking residents to conserve water. Due to hydroelectric dam operations upstream, fairly large hourly fluctuations in flows can be observed at some USGS streamflow gages, but the effects of these are temporary, and on average, river flows are continuing to slowly decline.

However, good news might be on the horizon. NWS MARFC predicts ¼ to ¾ inches of rain throughout the Potomac watershed.

“This may be enough to keep us in daily drought monitoring but out of drought operations,” according to Dr. Cherie Schultz, Director of ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP).

CO-OP staff have been in active drought monitoring status since last Friday. Should the dry weather continue, there is a possibility they will go into full drought operations, with twice-daily reporting to stakeholders and consideration of releases from upstream reservoirs.

Collaboration on River Spills

At this month’s meeting of the Potomac River Basin Drinking Water Source Protection Partnership members heard from sister river commissions and partner organizations about how they responded to two recent river spills: the East Palestine train derailment and the Delaware River latex spill. Although neither of these events occurred in the Potomac watershed, hearing how the Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO) and the US EPA Region 3 responded, and the lessons they learned, is an important step towards better preparation for a regional spill response.

A video of the presentations is available on the ICPRB YouTube page.

The Partnership is a voluntary association of water suppliers and government agencies focused on protecting sources of drinking water in the Potomac River basin. Coordinated by ICPRB, this coalition takes a collaborative approach to protecting raw water supplies in the basin, including spill response.

Find more information on who to contact if you see a spill, fish kill, or harmful algal bloom in the river can be found on ICPRB’s How to Report a Spill or Environmental Problem page.

Upcoming ICPRB Business Meeting

The ICPRB will hold its fourth quarter business meeting on September 12, 2023, at the National Conservation Training Center in Shepherdstown, WV. This will be the first in-person business meeting since 2020. The agenda includes a presentation about improvements to our seasonal forecasting projects like the Water Supply Outlook, an overview of the Comprehensive Plan 5-year review process, and updates on other projects.

The public is invited to attend the meeting, however, there will not be a virtual meeting option. Please contact us for more information on how to attend.

Commission Business Meeting Coming up on September 12

August 23, 2023

The public is invited to attend the meeting, however, there will not be a virtual meeting option. Please contact us for more information on how to attend.

Announcing ICPRB’s Fall Walk in the Woods

August 4, 2023

We are excited to announce three upcoming events where the public can join experts in their field on a walk and talk. We’ll cover issues related to watershed management, environmental challenges, winter salt use, park management, and more. The Saturday morning hikes are FREE, but please register at the links below so that we contact you in case of weather delays or other issues. Whether you’re a nature enthusiast, a conservationist, or simply curious about the natural world around you, this event is perfect for you!

Walk in the Woods: Frederick Municipal Forest (Frederick, MD on October 14)
Walk in the Woods: Sam Michael’s Park (Harpers Ferry, WV on October 21)
Walk in the Woods: Let’s be Smart About Winter Salt (Gaithersburg, MD on October 28)

Little rain noted in August’s Water Supply Outlook

August 3, 2023

In the case of a drought, there are several upstream reservoirs which are used as storage if we need to supplement the river’s flow to provide sufficient water to downstream communities. ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP) provides a monthly Water Supply Outlook which explores precipitation data, flows and other data to provide the possibility of water supply releases from these reservoirs. The report is an analysis of where the Potomac watershed stands with regards to water supply and drought preparation.

The August report found an above-normal probability of releases from the Washington metropolitan area’s backup water supply reservoirs for the 2023 summer and fall seasons. These releases are typically prompted by low flows resulting from a combination of insufficient summer precipitation and low groundwater levels. July’s average precipitation in the Potomac Basin was 0.4 inches below normal. Although recent rainfall improved conditions reported in the U.S. Seasonal Outlook and the U.S. Drought Monitor, on July 28th, CO-OP resumed daily drought monitoring. Presently, the Potomac River flow at the U.S. Geological Survey’s gage in Point of Rocks, Maryland, remains below CO-OP’s daily monitoring trigger of 2,000 cubic feet per second (cfs). The basin is also experiencing a long-term cumulative precipitation deficit of approximately 6.4 inches below normal (11 to 12 percent below normal). As a result, the adjusted stream flow at Little Falls remains below normal but remains above the 10th percentile, while groundwater monitoring wells used in the outlook indicate below-normal levels.

Despite the current conditions, the Potomac River’s flow is adequate to meet the water demands of the Washington metropolitan area without requiring releases from upstream reservoirs. Thanks to well-designed drought-contingency plans, the area is well-prepared to handle further reductions in flow.

Click here to read the full report >>>

News from Around the Basin – August 3, 2023

August 3, 2023

Studying harmful algal blooms, lots of conservation efforts and projects, dumping incident in Arlington, and more, in this week’s Potomac News Reservoir.

The Wrong Kind of Summer Blooms

Algal blooms can be unsightly and impede recreation on rivers and lakes. After all, who wants to paddle through mats of algae? But they can also be dangerous. Some algal blooms can produce toxins, known as cyanobacteria, that can sicken people and pets. These are known as Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs).

Algal blooms can be a common sight during the hot, dry months of late summer. Unfortunately, there is evidence that they will become more common due to climate change. Even with all the science behind them, their bloom patterns in the Potomac basin are not fully understood. ICPRB and our partners are working to fix that.

ICPRB aquatic biologists have been busy the past few weeks exploring the blooms of the North Branch and South Branch Potomac. They are working to figure out where the blooms are, why they are showing up where they are, and which species are present. Scientists at George Mason University’s Potomac Environmental Research and Education Center (PEREC) then identify the species to learn more about them.

The collaboration doesn’t end there. In addition to monitoring the blooms, we are conducting drone flyovers with Virginia Commonwealth University to help identify cyanobacteria (also known as blue green algae) hot spots and working with the Virginia Department of Health to develop a rapid field test for the presence of HABs.

“Over the course of these projects, we’ll make large strides in understanding why these blooms are occurring,” explains Mike Selckmann, ICPRB’s aquatic biologist.

In addition to working in the western part of the Potomac watershed, ICPRB staff are supporting the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) to develop a watershed management plan to address HABs in Lake Anna, Virginia.

ICPRB staff recently met with the Lake Anna Civic Association to discuss the project. The lake is not in the Potomac watershed, however, ICPRB is providing support due to our previous experience and expertise. Learn more about the projects mentioned above on Virginia DEQ’s Harmful Algal Bloom website.

Worried about blooms in your favorite swimming spot? According to the U.S. EPA, the signs of a possible toxic bloom include:

👃 A bad smell

🌊 Discoloration

🟩 Foam, scum, algal mats, or paint-like streaks on the surface

🐟 Dead fish or other animals washed up on its shore or beach

Some states provide algal bloom warnings, but if you are unsure of the water’s safety, it is best just to stay out of the water altogether (that includes your furry friends, too!).

Potomac River Conditions

If you only learn one thing from this newsletter, we hope it is that river flows are low and very little rain is in the forecast. Okay, that’s two things…but two important things. Much of the Potomac watershed is in moderate or severe drought.

It’s a good time to start thinking about wise water use (find more ideas at 100+ Water-Savings Tips):

🚽 Fix leaks

🧼 Only run the dishwasher/laundry with full loads

🏡 Take stock of water used for landscaping

As predicted in last week’s newsletter, ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply on the Potomac (CO-OP) has started daily drought monitoring due to the river’s flow at Point of Rocks dipping (and continuing to fall) below 2,000 cubic feet per second. Each morning CO-OP staff coordinate with water suppliers to provide an email to water utilities and government agencies with river flow, weather, and water demand. Having informed stakeholders helps everyone make good decisions about our water supply. In the case of a serious drought, the DC metro area is well protected thanks to decades of planning and preparation.

Current flow: 1700 cfs

Median flow: 2770 cfs

90 day precipitation: – 3.2 inches below average

ICPRB Continues Drought Monitoring

August 1, 2023

Low river flows are not uncommon during the dry months of late summer. So when the river flow at the USGS Point of Rocks gage dipped below 2,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) last Friday, ICPRB staff weren’t surprised, but they did kick into high gear. That level of flow is the threshold for active drought monitoring. Every day during active drought monitoring, staff of ICPRB’s Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP) coordinates with our partners to send daily reports to stakeholders summarizing flow, weather, and demand conditions. This type of coordinated collaboration ensures we are prepared for whatever the future holds.

Even if drought conditions persist, the water supply of the DC Metro area is protected due to decades of planning by ICPRB and its partners. One strategy to remediate drought is to engage upstream drinking water reservoirs which can provide supplemental water during low flows to ensure sufficient water downstream.

Find the current flow at Point of Rocks in the gage below:

Registration is open for the 2023 Potomac River Conference

July 27, 2023

We are excited to announce registration is open for ICPRB’s 2023 Potomac River Conference: One River’s Perspective on a Changing Climate. It will be held on September 21 in Lorton, Va. The event will highlight climate change in the Potomac River basin, including trends, regional resilience, government innovations, and implementation. In addition to informative speakers and panel discussions, a poster session will share the latest research on the Potomac River basin.

Click here to see the full agenda and register >>>

News from Around the Basin – July 27, 2023

July 27, 2023

Climate change in the basin, Christmas in July, boat ramp upgrades, free boat rides, and much more in this week’s Potomac News Reservoir.

Potomac River Conference: One River’s Perspective on a Changing Climate

We are excited to announce registration is open for ICPRB’s 2023 Potomac River Conference on September 21 in Lorton, Va. The event will highlight climate change in the Potomac River basin, including trends, regional resilience, government innovations, and implementation. In addition to informative speakers and panel discussions, a poster session will share the latest research on the Potomac River basin.

Click here to see the full agenda and register >>>

Christmas in July

As if in sync

ICPRB and our partners all think

of the holiday season to come

Not with visions of sugarplums

Or jolly fellows dressed in red

But with thoughts of needless piles of winter salt being spread

We admit we are better scientists than poets. We know the science is clear: our rivers and streams are becoming saltier. This has negative impacts for our health, aquatic life, and infrastructure.

There are ways to ensure public safety while still reducing our winter salt use and protecting our waterways. The Izaac Walton League of America is offering Smart Salt Applicator trainings for folks in Gaithersburg, MD, on August 22, and Montgomery County, MD, on August 30. Both trainings are free, virtual, and run from 9:00 am to 2:00 pm. The events are geared towards winter maintenance professionals, HOAs, business owners, and property managers, so please share the opportunity with your friends and colleagues. Participating organizations have been able to reduce their salt use by 30-70 percent, helping both the environment and their bottom line.

Potomac River Conditions

Last week, we were dead even for our 30 day precipitation average. This week, we creeped down to 0.4 inches below average.

The Potomac River’s flashiness (the tendency for flow to quickly go from high highs to low lows), may be on full display in the following few weeks as dry conditions are tempered by storms blowing through the region.

The National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center predicts less than an inch of rain in most of the Potomac watershed over the next few days, with very little predicted in the headwaters.

As is typical for this time of year, the river flow may soon be flirting with drought monitoring levels of 2,000 cubic feet per second at the Point of Rocks gage. If it falls below that number, ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply on the Potomac (CO-OP) will start coordinating with our partners to send daily reports to stakeholders summarizing flow, weather, and demand conditions.

Current flow: 2370 cfs

Median flow: 3070 cfs

90 day precipitation: -1.4 inches