2023 CO-OP Drought Operations Archives

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2023 CO-OP Drought Operations

November 22, 2024

The Washington, DC, metropolitan area experienced unusually dry conditions in the summer and fall of 2023, and flows in the Potomac River fell to levels requiring the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP) to conduct drought response activities in support of the major regional water suppliers: Fairfax Water, Loudoun Water, WSSC Water, and the Washington Aqueduct, a Division of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This report provides a brief summary of these activities and of related issues and discussions that arose. It also documents the take-aways of a Post-Drought Operations Review meeting that took place on November 3, 2023, and a subsequent meeting of the CO-OP Operations Committee on November 17.

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Evaluation of reported and unreported water uses in various sectors of the Potomac basin for the year 2017

July 30, 2024

Water resource planners and managers in the Mid-Atlantic United States typically determine the sufficiency of water supplies to meet demand by comparing (1) water use as reported to the state by individual water users to (2) metrics of water availability calculated from observed water monitoring networks. This paper focuses on determining whether this means of measuring water use is sufficient for proactive and sustainable management of water resources. The Potomac basin study area illustrates the point that, while state-reported water use databases typically cover the largest individual water users, unreported water uses can cumulatively comprise a substantial portion of the overall water use. If left unaccounted for, the system is vulnerable to human demand exceeding supplies, with attendant detrimental effects to aquatic habitats and organisms, especially given the exacerbating effects of climate change on the variability of water supplies. Planners and managers are therefore encouraged to consider the full spectrum of water uses, regardless of state reporting requirements.

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Quantifying groundwater storage dynamics in the Chesapeake Bay watershed (USA) using a large-scale integrated hydrologic model with detailed three-dimensional subsurface representation

June 29, 2023

Expanding on current efforts to evaluate the role of groundwater dynamics in managing and restoring Chesapeake Bay (USA), the integrated hydrologic model ParFlow-CLM was applied to a 374,976-km2 area encompassing the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The model included a representation of surface water, groundwater and land-surface energy fluxes with spatially variable atmospheric forcing at an hourly time step. The study tackled issues of data availability, access, assembly, and synthesis for estimating hydrogeologic properties in the context of the development of a large-scale model. Hydrogeologic properties from literature and other sources were assembled, processed, and synthesized to derive a conceptual hydrogeologic model consisting of 29 hydrofacies and a three-dimensional hydraulic conductivity field. Evaluation of the ParFlow-CLM model output showed that the constructed model captured seasonal and spatial variability in subsurface storage, surface storage and surface runoff, and produced water-table depths consistent with the topography, meteorological forcing, and hydrogeology. Comparison with well data from the US Geological Survey showed good agreement of model output with observed hydraulic heads for most of the data. Modeled terrestrial water storage changes compared well with GRACE satellite data with a root mean square error of 2.3 cm. Model results showed the dominant contribution of subsurface storage changes (90%) to terrestrial water storage changes in the region.

The publication is available on Springer Nature.

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2022 Washington Metropolitan Area Drought Exercise

May 24, 2023

The Washington, D.C., metropolitan area (WMA) relies on the Potomac River for over three-quarters of its water supply. The area’s three major water suppliers (“CO-OP suppliers”), Fairfax County Water Authority (Fairfax Water), Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission (WSSC Water), and Washington Aqueduct (a Division of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) participate in a cooperative system of water supply planning and management. This participation includes joint funding of water supply storage in reservoirs located upstream of the suppliers’ Potomac River intakes and coordinated operations during droughts.

During times of drought, the Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP) of the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) plays a crucial role in coordinating water supply operations. By coordinating withdrawals from the Potomac River, Patuxent, and Occoquan reservoirs, the CO-OP staff help ensure that water resources are being utilized efficiently and effectively for the benefit of the system. When the forecasted flow in the river is not sufficient to meet expected demands, the CO-OP staff make requests for releases from upstream reservoirs. These demands include the water supply needs of the WMA and an environmental flow-by of 100 million gallons per day (MGD), or 155 cubic feet per second (cfs), on the Potomac River below the Little Falls Dam near Washington, D.C.

The ICPRB CO-OP section conducts an annual drought exercise to maintain readiness for drought conditions. These exercises serve as a platform for CO-OP staff to evaluate and discuss water management strategies with relevant stakeholders, prior to a real drought scenario. The activities aid in training CO-OP staff on regional agreements, tools, and decision-making processes. Moreover, they offer participants the chance to refine their communication processes and enhance organizational efficiency.

This report describes activities conducted during the 2022 Drought Exercise. The virtual training took place on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, November 15-17, from 7:30 A.M. to 2:00 P.M. Communications during the exercise were via telephone, email, and Microsoft Teams, and all operations were “simulated.” Stakeholders received twice-daily email reports on “actual” precipitation, river flow, water withdrawals, and “simulated” operations and reservoir storages. This year’s exercise included the following elements:

  • A regional Drought Coordination Technical Committee (DCTC) conference call to discuss potential water use restrictions associated with the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) “Warning” stage,
  • Communication with Washington Aqueduct on the Low Flow Allocation Agreement (LFAA) thresholds, and
  • Data collection and operational forecasts through CO-OP’s Data Portal and daily flow forecast tool to determine the need for “simulated” releases from Little Seneca and North Branch reservoirs (Jennings Randolph and Savage).
Cover page for CONSIDERATIONS FOR MONITORING MICROPLASTICS IN THE NON-TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER small

Considerations for Monitoring Microplastics in the Non-Tidal Potomac River

December 9, 2022

The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin’s 2022 Clean Water Act Section 106 Potomac Basin Water Quality Improvement grant included an activity to “assist water suppliers in VA, MD, and DC in developing microplastic sampling and analysis methodologies and conduct field sample collection.” This white paper, which explores the feasibility of a microplastic monitoring program in the nontidal Potomac basin, represents the output for this activity. Section 2 describes considerations for collecting and processing samples for microplastics analysis. Section 3 provides a brief explanation of analytical methods and quality control recommendations for the detection, quantification, and identification of microplastics.

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Improving probabilistic monthly water quantity and quality predictions using a simplified residual-based modeling approach

August 26, 2022

Uncertainty quantification between simulated and observed water quality simulations needs to be improved. This study generated and evaluated probabilistic hydrologic and water quality predictions in 18 locations across the U.S. using residual-based modeling. A Box-Cox transformation scheme group provided the best predictive uncertainties for all case studies. The tradeoffs in the performance metrics for a single variable predictive uncertainty in a single study watershed were more obvious than those for all hydrologic or water quality cases. Compared to a single realization of simulations, the ensemble average of hydrologic and water quality simulations better represented the predictive uncertainty, especially for large watersheds. This study recommends various opportunities via residual error scheme selection, data monitoring improvement, and hydrologic model enhancement to robust hydrologic and water quality predictive uncertainties. The results could improve the quantification of the predictive uncertainty of hydrologic and water quality simulations and guide probabilistic prediction enhancement.

More information about the paper is available on ScienceDirect.com.

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Potomac Basin Reported Water Use

August 26, 2022

In accordance with one of the technical recommendations of the Potomac Basin Comprehensive Water Resources Plan’s water use and supplies challenge area, this pamphlet has been produced to document and share high-level results. This pamphlet provides a “report on basin-wise water uses,” and ultimately acts as a first step toward estimating, “projected demands and consumptive demands.”

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Potomac Environmental Flows Workshop 2022

July 12, 2022

In 2021, Commissioners of the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) passed a Resolution on Enhancing Water Supply Resilience for the Washington Metropolitan Area. This resolution is the first step in updating the two foundational agreements of the Washington metropolitan area cooperative water supply system: the Low Flow Allocation Agreement (LFAA) of 1978 and the Water Supply Coordination Agreement (WSCA) of 1982. To facilitate such an update the resolution called for the following action items:

  • Develop a Task Force on the WSCA to reinitiate dialogue on revisions that would accurately reflect changing conditions. This includes the need for strengthening water security against spills, cybersecurity attack, and water scarcity and the ability to include additional suppliers;
  • Convene a Work Group to discuss the ten sets of options identified in the 2018 review of the LFAA; and
  • Convene scientific workshops on state-of-the-art approaches to environmental flows for large river systems.

To address the third action item, a virtual workshop was held over one-and-a-half days in May 2022, with the explicit purpose of answering the following questions with respect to the Potomac River, which supplies most of the Washington, D. C., metropolitan area drinking water:

  • Are there other approaches now for determining environmental flows in large, relatively unregulated rivers like the Potomac?
  • If there are, what data, analysis tools, and assessments are needed to make a scientifically defensible change?

The information presented and discussed during the workshop provides input to the LFAA workgroup in the event the group recommends revisiting the current environmental flow-by target used during low flow periods. The question of whether or not to study the flow-by was informally discussed during the workshop but the intent of the workshop was to gather the relevant information, not recommend a course of action.

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