River Report: What the data is telling us
We’re sharing a lot of graphs in the newsletter today and breaking down what each one represents. Drought management and response is about looking at the different pieces of the puzzle to create a complete picture of the situation. ICPRB scientists rely on data from our partners at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Weather Service (NWS), USGS, USDA, state departments of the environment, and others, to put the picture together for the people who rely on the Potomac River for their drinking water.
TL;DR version: It’s dry out there. Please use water wisely.
Here is a rundown of what the data is telling us…
According to today’s U.S. Drought Monitor data, the severity of drought continues to grow across the Potomac River watershed. The area of Severe Drought (orange) in the watershed grew from 23% last week to 30% this week, making its way west across the basin.
Rain over the past 30 days is 1.7 inches below normal. Winter ended at 7.6 inches of rain below normal.
The flow at Point of Rocks is below the 5th percentile at 37% of the median for this time of year. It is currently around 5,000 cubic feet per second (cfs). If it drops to 2,000 cfs, ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac will initiative Drought Monitoring.
Maryland has declared a Drought Warning for the entire state except the WSSC Service Area, which is in Drought Watch status (declared by COG).
The recent Virginia map lists several groundwater and streamflow areas in both warning and emergency status. The Virginia Drought Monitoring Task Force is scheduled to meet today to discuss the situation.
The Metropolitan Washington region remains in a Drought Watch that was declared by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) last July.
There is some good news in the data. NOAA’s 7-day outlook shows up to 1-inch of rain over the next week. Additionally, NOAA reports that the impact of El Niño will bring an increase in extreme wet events in the region. However, the ideal storms would be slow and steady in order to soak into the ground and recharge the groundwater.
The first Water Supply Outlook of 2025 will be released soon by staff at ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP). A link to the report will be included in the newsletter once it is released.