New research on how heat impacts our water supply
Almost 160 million people in the United States are under a heat alert this week. How does extreme heat impact our water supply, especially as variability increases into the future? Will we be able to turn our taps on to quench our thirst, cook dinner, or flush the toilet?
Estimating future water requirements in the region is a challenge, especially in the face of increased variability in precipitation and temperatures. A recently published article by Dr. Cherie Schultz and colleagues in ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP), explores the future risks and impacts of hot drought through the lens of the Potomac River basin.
Applying statistical modeling, the data indicate that, “future Potomac River flows will be impacted by ‘hot drought’, that is, increasing drought severity caused by rising temperatures coupled with natural variability in precipitation.” Even though precipitation amounts are expected to increase by up to 16% by 2099, annual river flows may decrease by as much as 49% by the same year due to extreme heat. The increased rain does not mitigate the conditions in the extremely dry and hot months.
The Potomac River is a major source of water for the region and the only source of water for Washington, D.C. and Arlington, VA. Important research like this can inform planning decisions for the Washington, DC, metropolitan area’s cooperative regional water supply system.
These predicted changes in river flows may necessitate new water supply infrastructure to ensure we can turn on our taps, even as obtaining federal funding for water infrastructure may become more challenging.
The article, Is Hot Drought a Risk in the US Mid-Atlantic? A Potomac Basin Case Study, was published in the June edition of the Journal of the American Water Resources Association.